Breakout player case study: Dyson Daniels

I drafted a whole lot of Dyson Daniels this season. If you missed out, here's what you overlooked...

It’s back! A couple of weeks ago I introduced my new case study series, where I highlighted Denver’s breakout sensation, Christian Braun.

If you previously missed that, be sure to check it out below, as there were some good lessons to be learned...

Next up, it’s time to do a deep dive on The Great Barrier Thief, Dyson Daniels.

Dyson Daniels - Atlanta Hawks

Age (NBA experience): 21 (3rd season)

College (Draft pick): G League Ignite (no college), (#8 pick in 2022 draft)

Height, Weight: 6’7, 199 lbs

Role (Position): Lockdown defender, secondary ball-handler (SG)

ADP in NFBKC drafts (ADP in Main Event drafts): 148.9 (134.0)

2023-24 stats:

61 games played (16 starts), 22.3 minutes, 44.7% FG, 31.1% 3P, 64.2% FT, 5.8 points, 3.9 rebounds, 2.7 assists, 1.4 steals, 0.4 blocks, 0.7 threes.

Current 2024-25 stats:

25 games played (25 starts), 34.0 minutes, 44.9% FG, 30.2% 3P, 61.0% FT, 13.4 points, 5.1 rebounds, 3.4 assists, 3.0 steals, 0.9 blocks, 1.2 threes.

Where was Daniels drafted?

As shown above, Daniels was usually drafted around the 13th round across all NFBKC drafts, although he started being a borderline 11th/12th round pick by the time the Main Event drafts started (deeper into preseason).

So did I actually draft Daniels, or am I simply speaking in hindsight?

Here are some of my stats on drafting Dyson Daniels during his breakout year:

7 Online leagues = Drafted Daniels 2 times (29%)

9 Best Ball leagues = Drafted Daniels 3 times (33%)

5 NFBKC 50 leagues = Drafted Daniels 2 times (40%)

5 Main Event leagues = Drafted Daniels 2 times (40%)

15 Draft Champion leagues = Drafted Daniels 6 times (40%)

Yeaaah, I don’t just talk the talk…

Reasons why he wasn’t drafted earlier:

-He wasn’t guaranteed a 30+ mpg role

With Trae Young taking up the bulk of the point guard minutes, and Bogdan Bogdanovic being a very proven shooting guard capable of playing starter’s minutes even when coming off the bench, how many minutes Daniels would get was somewhat in question. Plus, during the 2023-24 season, Daniels played 30+ minutes only nine times.

-Besides Young and Bogdan, Zaccharie Risacher seemed like a legit threat to Dyson’s minutes, since he came in with high hopes as the #1 overall pick in this year’s draft. With solid length and athleticism, Risacher can play both wing spots, and we also knew that Jalen Johnson was going to play a ton of minutes at forward, and that De’Andre Hunter was still around to soak up playing time.

-Daniels was (and still is) a very suspect shooter

Dyson is shooting just 30% 3P on 3.8 attempts per game this season, which is right in line with his career mark of 31% 3P. He’s also shooting just 61% FT on 1.6 attempts per game, on par with his career 63% FT mark.

For most guards in the NBA those numbers would be unacceptable, and you wouldn’t stand a chance of playing major minutes (unless you’re spectacular in other areas).

-Dyson had been viewed as a non-scoring threat

Last season, he scored just 9.4 points per 36 minutes. Over 61 games played, Daniels scored 12+ points a mere FOUR times (despite playing 20+ minutes 38 times). This made many people view him as a Matisse Thybulle type of player.

Thybulle has been viewed as an elite defender in the NBA, but his inability to score (8.2 points per 36 for his career) and knock down shots consistently (sub-34% 3P for his career) have always limited his playing time and lowered his fantasy ceiling. Many people (myself included) were always waiting for Thybulle to take his game to another level, but it never really happened. So if you viewed Daniels as the next Thybulle, it makes sense why you didn’t want to use a Top 120 pick on him.

-Per minute steal and block rates tend to fluctuate drastically, and it’s hard to predict when improvements will be made

While Daniels had shown very promising per minute numbers last season (2.3 steals and 0.7 blocks per 36 minutes), there was no guarantee that he’d be able to improve on those gaudy per minute numbers, especially while playing a larger role with a new team.

Here are some recent examples of players posting promising per minute defensive stats one season, then falling off drastically the following year(s):

-In 2022-23, OG Anunoby grabbed a strong 1.9 steals and 0.8 blocks per 36 minutes with Toronto, leading some fantasy managers to project a further increase in both categories the following year, which led to many people drafting him before Scottie Barnes last season. Instead, his steals fell to just 1.4 per 36, and Barnes proved to be far more valuable than OG.

-In 2021-22, Dejounte Murray led the league in steals, posting 2.1 thefts per 36 minutes with the Spurs. The next year that number dropped to 1.5 per 36, and then 1.4 per 36 the year after. This is extremely relevant to Daniels!

Not only were the two players traded for each other, but Murray’s drop in steals coincided with him joining the Hawks. Now that Murray is on a new team, his steals have spiked again (2.3 per 36 minutes this season with the Pelicans). This is somewhat confusing, since Daniels has done the exact opposite since joining the Hawks (his steals rate has skyrocketed). I will get to my theory on this difference in a little bit…

-In 2018-19 (his 2nd year in the league), De’Aaron Fox emerged defensively with 1.9 steals and 0.6 blocks per 36 minutes. After that, it seemed like Fox was going to become a legit challenger for the steals title, but over the next four seasons, his steals per 36 minutes fell to 1.6, then 1.5, then 1.2 and 1.2. Not until last season did he live up to that promise defensively, leading the league with 2.0 steals per game in 2023-24.

-During the 2018-19 and 2019-20 seasons (his first two years in the league), Mikal Bridges combined to average a sweet 1.9 steals and 0.7 blocks per 36 minutes. At the time, he was considered an excellent defender with sky-high fantasy potential. But in each of the past five seasons, Bridges has yet to average more than 1.2 steals per 36 minutes. Fantasy-wise, the expectations for Bridges are much lower nowadays.

What can we learn from the Murray, Fox and Bridges examples, and why are Daniels’ defensive numbers on the Hawks so much better than Murray’s defensive numbers on the Hawks?

A conclusion to draw here is that it’s hard to continue posting excellent defensive numbers while also taking on an expanded offensive role. For young players especially (Fox and Bridges during their first two seasons), they have to find ways to impact the game defensively in order to earn minutes.

Fox and Bridges did that early on, but as their games matured, they needed to start carrying more of a burden on offense. Once they started to exert more focus and energy on the offensive side (while also getting more attention from opposing defenses), their defensive stats suffered.

For Murray, his last season on the Spurs he was tasked with doing everything. He may have entered the league as a defensive-first player and secondary scorer and playmaker, but he left the Spurs being a 21+ point and 9+ assist per game All-Star. So when he joined the Hawks, he wanted to continue playing that role, but that happened to be Trae Young’s role. Conflict of interest.

My theory is that once it became apparent that it wasn’t the best backcourt fit in Atlanta, Murray tried even harder to prove himself on the offensive end, still wanting to be THAT GUY.

When that happened, his energy and focus on the defensive end slipped even more. Hence, the major drop-off in steals for Murray while on the Hawks, and the lack of Atlanta’s team success with the Young and Murray pairing.

For Daniels it’s been a different story, because he is okay with not scoring 20+ points most nights, or needing the ball in his hands on every possession. Atlanta’s offense goes through Young, and Jalen Johnson is an excellent playmaker as well.

So Daniels’ role has expanded only slightly on offense, which has allowed him to stay focused on what he does best: be an absolute menace defensively.

Reasons why he’s earned more minutes:

-Daniels has elite physical tools

While standing just 6-foot-7 or 6-foot-8 depending on where you look, he possesses a nearly 6-foot-11 wingspan. He’s also wiry strong (very rarely do you see him get overpowered), has excellent bursts of speed, super quick instincts, nice leaping ability, and just overall very solid athleticism.

Throw him in any other sport, and Dyson would likely succeed. In fact, as a kid he was a top Australian rules footballer.

-TENACIOUS. LOCKDOWN. DEFENSE.

I don’t need to explain this one, as Daniels is on pace to become the first player to average 3+ steals per game since Nate McMillan in 1993-94 (if you think that Daniels’ thievery is impressive, consider that McMillan achieved the feat while coming off the bench for 65 of 73 games played, and playing less than 26 mpg)!

It’s more than just the steals however, as Daniels just has that defensive mindset where he’ll take on any matchup, big or small. He’s in the same vein of players like Draymond Green and Jrue Holiday. Here he talks about his breakout season:

-The (near) perfect complement to Trae Young

In terms of fit, you definitely want a rugged and physical lockdown defender next to Young. After swinging and missing on the Murray pairing, the fit with Daniels has been close to perfect. The only way it could be better is if Daniels were a better 3-point shooter, but there’s another area on offense where he’s been highly valuable...