Breakout player case study: Christian Braun
In our new case study series, we examine WHY certain players are breaking out, so that you can improve your future skills in finding and drafting them...
Now that we have substantial sample sizes, I want to introduce my new Zen Hoops series to you: Breakout Player Case Studies!
For today’s study, free subscribers will get a basic summary of who, what and a little bit of why, while paid subscribers are going to get much more detailed analysis into why Braun has really taken off this season, including what signs you should have been looking out for.
At the conclusion, paid subs will also get a chance to vote for who our next breakout player case study is going to be!
Let’s tip this series off with Denver’s biggest breakout performer, the exciting and fiery Christian Braun.
Trivia question #1: Who played Mr. Brown in Reservoir Dogs?
Christian Braun - Denver Nuggets
Age (NBA experience): 23 (3rd season)
College (Draft pick): Kansas (#21 pick in 2022 draft)
Height, Weight: 6’6, 220 lbs
Role (Position): 3-and-D Wing (SG)
ADP in NFBKC drafts (% drafted): 191.1 (72.5%)
2023-24 stats:
82 games played (4 starts), 20.2 minutes, 46.0% FG, 38.4% 3P, 69.4% FT, 7.3 points, 3.7 rebounds, 1.6 assists, 0.5 steals, 0.4 blocks, 0.8 threes.
Current 2024-25 stats:
18 games played (18 starts), 34.9 minutes, 58.6% FG, 47.9% 3P, 78.5% FT, 15.9 points, 5.1 rebounds, 1.9 assists, 1.2 steals, 0.7 blocks, 1.3 threes.
Reasons why he wasn’t drafted earlier:
-Hadn’t been a full-time starter before, and wasn’t guaranteed the starting job in training camp.
-Hadn’t proven he could make threes at higher volume, and was an unwilling shooter.
-Very poor free throw shooting his first two seasons (67.2% FT combined).
-Mediocre per minute defensive numbers (1.7 stocks per 36 mins in 2023-24).
-Denver’s previous shooting guard (Kentavious Caldwell-Pope) didn’t produce a lot last season (10.1 points in 31.6 mpg).
-His competition for minutes (Julian Strawther) had both an excellent Las Vegas summer league, as well as a very strong preseason (5 games, 28.0 minutes. 18.8 points, 2.6 threes, 52.6% FG, 50.0% 3P).
Reasons why he’s earned more minutes:
-He’s a cerebral player, he knows where to be and how to play off Jokic (important).
-He’s a great team player, limits his mistakes and doesn’t try to do too much.
-He’s very athletic, excels in transition and when attacking the basket.
-He’s feisty as hell, is wiry strong and isn’t afraid to play physical.
-Very high effort on the defensive end, while not an elite defender, he’s reliable.
These are all of the key reasons why Braun has started and played more minutes than Strawther. While Strawther is the superior 3-point shooter and arguably the more dynamic scorer, he makes more mental mistakes, doesn’t try as hard on D, and has more physical limitations than Braun.
Before we take a deeper dive into the signs you should have seen that this breakout season might be coming, let’s watch Braun’s spicy season highlight reel thus far.
Improvements that were predictable (you should have seen coming):
His improved free throw shooting!
Yes, 67% FT after two NBA seasons is really bad for a non-center, but that was based on just 65 total free throw attempts. If you did some research into Braun’s college stats, you would have seen that he shot 77.6% FT on 134 FTA his final year in college.